The Implications of Changing Educational and Family Circumstances for Children’s Grade Progression in Rural Pakistan: 1997-2004

Abstract

An evaluation of the factors that impact the school dropout rate for males and females within Pakistan and measures that can bring about the desired change.

Pakistan continues to face severe challenges in the achievement of its Millennium Development Goal of universal primary education and this paper aims to highlight the factors that impact the ability of children to complete their primary schooling. Multivariate analysis using discrete time hazard models based on data collected through surveys in rural N.F.W.P and Punjab in 1997 and 2004 reveals that school environment and household environment play a critical role in enrollment and retention of children within primary school.

The study suggest that girls face a higher probability of dropout if they are enrolled in public school or experience the arrival of an unwanted sibling whereas accessibility to schools, an educated mother and higher income levels significantly reduce the probability of girl’s dropout. Conversely, the probability of boys dropout rate increases sharply if the household has experienced a loss of income in the last six years whereas it declines if the male child resides in a developed community that offers high quality of education. The study recommends that short run action can include cash transfer scheme targeted at poor whereas in the long run polices must be designed to enhance accountability, accessibility and quality of public schools if Pakistan wants to successfully achieve its MDGs target by 2015.

Publishing Year: 2006

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