The Demographic Dividend: Effects of Population Change on School Education in Pakistan

Abstract

Analysis of the primary universal enrollment rate within Pakistan and actions required to achieve the desired Millennium Development Goals by 2015.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of demographic changes on the ability of the country to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of universal primary education by 2015. Simulations based on projected population figures and enrollment rates reveal that by 2030 the number of children not enrolled in school would drastically increase from 9.5 million to 27.7 million whereas children not attending secondary school would increase to 58 million making it impossible to achieve the MDGs within the stated deadline. The author holds that the widening education gap within the masses of Pakistan would hinder economic development by creating unfavorable conditions to take benefit from demographic dividend. The best option is therefore to bring about a drastic increase in the enrollment rate which can be achieved by doubling the investment within the education sector in order to cater to the demographic changes within school-age children.  The report recommends that government intervention is required within rural areas that experience shortage of quality schools and gender disparity. In order to create a sustainable environment for future generations of Pakistan, social protection strategies must be devised that aim to provide basic literacy and skills to out of school children.

Publishing Year: 2011

Attached File:

WorkingPaper-68.pdf - Download